Bangladesh is in turmoil, which is not good news for India, which shares a porous 4000 km border with it. There is a danger of fundamentalism growing there, and India has to move in to reset its ties with the new dispensation before China and Pakistan make capital out of it, alerts Ramesh Menon.
Sir Osborne Smith was the first governor of the Reserve Bank, serving from April 1, 1935, to June 30, 1937.
BofA-ML revised its end-2015 rupee-dollar forecast to 60 from 64 earlier.
Domestic exporters on Monday expressed concerns over the crisis in Bangladesh and said the developments in the neighbouring country would have implications on bilateral trade. However, exporters expect that the situation may normalise soon. According to exporters, they are already facing disruptions in exports to Bangladesh due to a shortage of foreign exchange in that country.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said in the wake of appreciating US dollar, the movement of rupee has remained least disruptive as compared to its peers, and the size of foreign exchange reserve is comfortable. On a financial year basis (from April to October 2022), the rupee has appreciated by 3.2 per cent in real terms, even as several major currencies have depreciated, he said while announcing the latest set of bi-monthly monetary policy. "The story of the rupee has been one of India's resilience and stability," the Governor said while pointing out that the appreciation of the US dollar this year, which precipitated large-scale depreciation of all major global currencies including the Indian rupee, has drawn wide attention.
Brokerage firm Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) on Monday said the ongoing US government shutdown is positive for the country, as it gives additional time to recoup the forex reserves.
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The BofAML report said that five year money can be raised by issuing the 7 to 9 per cent coupon bonds to stabilise markets, just as it was done in 1998 and 2001.
Indian central bank may soon edge out its counterpart in the Netherlands from the top-10 list, as latter's holding has largely remained unchanged.
Growth remains weak, inflation is within 2-6% range, rate cut would help recoup forex reserves
It plans to use it as collateral, along with forex reserves, to print currency.
ICICI Bank chief Chanda Kochhar on Wednesday said the country has many positives like high forex reserves, and low current account and fiscal gaps, which can help it weather the ongoing volatilities.
The Reserve Bank is likely to continue buying dollars from market to add to its reserves in the coming months, which has crossed $300 billion, says a report.
India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.8 billion to $343.2 billion
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) outstanding net forward purchases of US dollars fell by more than 50 per cent from the last quarter of FY22 to $30.86 billion in the June quarter (Q1). The net forwards position was at $65.79 billion at the end of the last fiscal year. The purchases fell by $18.33 billion in June as the central bank intervened in both the forwards and the spot market in order to protect the rupee from excessive depreciation in the face of a widening trade deficit.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
Mumbai-based Weizmann, part of a diversified group, will take to court its former partner Western Union Holdings, the American money-transfer giant, alleging that the United States-based company has imitated its trademark and logo. This, its lawyers say, constitutes a case of infringement and dilution of its intellectual-property rights.
In his address at the meeting of the foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Benaulim, Goa, Jaishankar said the channel of finances for terror activities must be blocked without any distinction even as Bhutto Zardari raised the issue of "violation of international law" which was seen as an apparent reference to Kashmir.
Sri Lankan government on Monday admitted that it has run out of cash to buy fuel as pumps in most filling stations across the country have run dry, exacerbating the deepening foreign-exchange crisis that has crippled the island nation's economy.
The steep decline in commodity prices has reversed.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
Business is down to such an extent that last year these firms could not even meet RBI's capital norm of Rs 50 million for partnerships and Rs 100 million for public and private firms in this line of business.
As the nosediving rupee shatters foreign-education dreams and eats away the country's much-vaunted forex reserves -- to mention just two fallouts -- Uttam Ghosh takes up pen and paper to outline what the common Indian is feeling.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
Amid reports of corporates making losses on hedging forex products other than dollar, the Reserve Bank may soon come out with guidelines on forex derivatives, which is widely expected to discourage banks from trading in foreign currencies other than in rupee-dollar. "We are working on the guidelines of forex derivatives," an RBI spokesperson told PTI.
The RBI is still a small player in international gold buying among central banks. But in terms of total gold bought in 2019, it is the sixth largest buyer with 25.2 tonnes purchases in the first 10 months of 2019.
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to an all-time low of 81.93 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday as the strengthening of the American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 81.90 against the greenback, then fell to 81.93, registering a fall of 40 paise over its previous closing.
The swap windows were closed on November 30.
Foreign currency assets, which are a major component of the overall reserves, rose by $646.4 million to $386.762 billion.
The rupee fell 1.87 percent against the dollar this week, its biggest fall since late April.
RBI's swap windows have boosted foreign inflows over the past two months.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pulled out $3.5 billion from India's equity markets so far this month. The selling comes on the back of election-induced volatility and the rotation of flows from India to China, where stocks are available at half the valuations. If the selling pressure remains at the current level, this will be the highest FPI pullout since January 2023.
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
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The country has enough forex reserves to meet the demand.
India spends significantly less on defence than could be expected from a country that faces simultaneous armed threats from two hostile neighbours -- China and Pakistan.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
Heightened volatility makes the debt rollovers difficult.
The rupee on Tuesday fell to a two-month low of 54.78 against the US dollar.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a dollar-rupee two-year sell-buy swap auction for $5 billion on March 8, which will suck out rupee liquidity from the system. The swap will be in the nature of a simple sell/buy foreign exchange from the RBI side, in which a bank will buy US dollars from the central bank and simultaneously agree to sell the same amount of US dollars at the end of the swap period. "With a view to elongating the maturity profile of its forward book and smoothen the receivables relating to forward assets, it has been decided to undertake sell/buy swap auction of $5 billion on March 8, 2022," the RBI said in a statement. The auction cut-off will be based on the premium amount in paisa terms up to two decimal points.
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